BTI report says political elite maintain status quo as inflation, poverty rise, weakening trust in institutions and worsening economic conditions nationwide.
Nigeria’s political and economic elite have largely continued to operate in a “business as usual” manner despite worsening living conditions for the majority of citizens, according to the Bertelsmann Stiftung’s Transformation Index (BTI) 2026.
The report, which assesses governance, democracy and market economy performance across 137 developing and transition countries, painted a stark picture of a country grappling with deepening socioeconomic hardship, even as entrenched power structures remain largely unchanged.
Covering the period from February 2023 to January 2025, the BTI 2026 highlighted a widening disconnect between Nigeria’s ruling class and ordinary citizens, noting that while key economic reforms have been introduced under President Bola Tinubu, their short-term effects have significantly worsened living conditions.
Overall, it ranked Nigeria 82 out of 137 countries in political transformation; 111 out of 137 nations in economic transformation and 78 out of 137 in governance index and described the country as a ‘moderate autocracy’ in politics, very limited in the economic transformation index and moderate in the governance index.
The BTI, an independent German foundation, ranks how countries steer social change towards democracy and market-based systems, assessing the quality of governance using expert assessments to identify successful strategies.
“In the past decade, the country has experienced weak or negative economic growth, declining revenues, mounting public debt, and a worsening security situation. Although some efforts have been made to strengthen anti-corruption institutions, the country’s political elite appears to be continuing with business as usual,” it pointed out.
For Nigeria, inflation, it said, surged to over 30 per cent in 2024, driven largely by currency depreciation and the removal of fuel subsidies. Although these reforms align with long-standing recommendations from international financial institutions, the report noted that insufficient mitigation measures have left millions of Nigerians exposed to rising costs of living.
Citing World Bank estimates, the report stated that the poverty rate climbed from 40 per cent in 2018 to 56 per cent in 2024, reflecting the combined effects of slow economic growth, high inflation and structural inequalities.
Despite a new minimum wage of N70,000 introduced in 2024, the report observed that rising fuel prices and persistent inflation have eroded its real value, with compliance uneven across both public and private sectors.
Yet, amid these pressures, Nigeria’s political system, it contended, continues to be dominated by elite interests. The BTI described a governance structure where “private rent-seeking is the rule rather than the exception,” with public resources often captured and distributed among political actors across regions to maintain stability within the system.
According to the report, this arrangement, while ensuring a degree of elite cohesion, has done little to improve the welfare of the broader population.
“Nigeria has an elaborate administrative structure across its territory. Besides the federal government in Abuja, there are 36 state and 774 local governments. At each level, executive, legislative and judicial institutions are in place. The federal government consists of numerous ministries, departments and agencies with overlapping responsibilities. Staffing contributes to a high recurrent non-debt expenditure cost of about 40 per cent – 50 per cent of the federal budget each year.
“Recurrent spending also outweighs capital expenditure in most Nigerian states. While administrative structures are in place and employment can be provided to a select few, infrastructure spending is low, facilities and services are weak and corruption is rampant.
“…Stark urban-rural gaps exist and partially align with north-south development disparities in education, health and other socioeconomic indicators, leaving the northern regions significantly behind the southern regions. Educational facilities are present throughout the country, but pupil-teacher ratios are high, teaching quality is low and infrastructure is inadequate,” the report stated.
The report argued that successive administrations, including that of former President Muhammadu Buhari, failed to fundamentally reform the system. Although anti-corruption institutions have recorded some high-profile cases, such efforts, BTI pointed out, have yielded limited structural change. It highlighted that allegations frequently dissipate over time or are perceived as politically motivated.
Under Tinubu, the report said that there are indications of more decisive policymaking, particularly in the removal of fuel subsidies, exchange rate unification and efforts to implement the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA). However, the BTI cautioned that these reforms have so far translated into economic pain rather than immediate gains, contributing to business losses, weak non-oil sector growth and declining foreign investment.
“…APC government has also faced several external crises, including a global oil-price drop, the COVID-19 pandemic, recurrent flooding and widespread insecurity in its Sahelian neighborhood. …Yet the APC government has also implemented economic policies with insufficient preparation, coordination and transparency, contributing to lower standards of living for many of its citizens,” the report emphasised.
Nigeria’s fiscal position, according to the report, remains under strain, with oil production (OPEC) continuing to hover between 1.3 million and 1.5 million barrels per day, limiting revenue gains despite higher global oil prices.
As a result, it argued that government expenditure continues to exceed revenue, leading to increased borrowing. Although the country’s debt-to-GDP ratio remains below the sub-Saharan African average, rising debt levels, it explained, pose medium-term risks.
Beyond the economy, the report highlighted a deteriorating security environment. Insurgent groups such as Boko Haram and ISWAP remain active in the North-East, while new armed factions have emerged in the North-West and North-Central regions. Farmer-herder conflicts persist, and kidnapping and banditry have become widespread across the country.
In the South-east, it stressed that separatist violence linked to groups such as IPOB continues, often met with heavy-handed responses from security forces. The Niger Delta also faces renewed instability, it noted. with criminal gangs and militant activity contributing to insecurity in the oil-producing region.
Despite these challenges, it stated that the government has managed to contain large-scale civil unrest through a combination of repression and concessions, citing the August 2024 #EndBadGovernance protests, where security forces intervened forcefully as an example .
According to the index, Nigeria’s democratic institutions, meanwhile, remain formally intact but increasingly ineffective in delivering tangible benefits to citizens. Elections, it said, continue to be held regularly, and power transitions occur within a constitutional framework. However, issues such as vote-buying, voter intimidation and technical failures, it argued, have undermined public confidence.
The report noted that while most Nigerians still prefer democracy as a system of government, satisfaction with its performance has declined significantly, with trust in key institutions, including the electoral body, weakening.
“The change in leadership has not yet brought positive change to Nigerians. Economic growth remains slow, consumer prices have increased sharply and insecurity has continued to spread throughout the country,” it maintained.
It described political parties as lacking ideological depth, functioning largely as vehicles for elite competition rather than platforms for policy development, while civil society, once a strong mobilising force, has also weakened.
While organisations such as the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) retain some influence, the report stated that they have been constrained by a mix of state pressure and internal limitations.
