Rising fuel and grocery prices are fuelling voter anger over Trump’s foreign policy, putting Republican control of Congress under pressure ahead of November’s elections.
Donald Trump’s foreign policy decisions are emerging as a growing political liability for Republicans ahead of the November 3 midterm elections, as rising fuel and grocery costs lead more Americans to question the economic impact of his actions abroad.
Traditionally, foreign policy has played a secondary role in US midterm elections, with voters more focused on domestic economic conditions. But Trump’s war against Iran and sweeping tariffs have increasingly linked international decisions to household expenses, creating a challenge for the president and his party.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted earlier this month found that about 78% of Americans blamed Trump’s policies for price increases outpacing their earnings.
The situation recalls the 2006 midterms, when Republicans lost control of both chambers of Congress under President George W. Bush amid public opposition to the Iraq war. However, the current backlash could be more pronounced because voters are directly feeling the effects of higher fuel prices and grocery bills.
“The bottom line is people are experiencing the impact of Trump’s war and other policies,” said Christopher Preble, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center in Washington. “Now voters have a chance to register their discontent with how he’s dealing with all this.”
With Trump’s approval ratings reaching historic lows, his administration has taken several steps aimed at easing pressure on energy prices before the elections.
Among them was the lifting of sanctions on Russian diesel exports, a move intended to lower fuel costs. Critics, including some Republicans, argue that the decision risks reinforcing perceptions that Trump is favouring Moscow in its war against Ukraine.
Trump has also urged Kyiv to stop attacking Russian refineries while attempting to shift responsibility for high US petrol prices. Experts, however, say the surge in energy costs is primarily linked to the war against Iran that the United States launched alongside Israel nearly eight months ago.
The president has also pledged not to launch any new attacks on Iran before the midterms, although reports suggest the United States and Israel are preparing for a possible major escalation after the elections.
Polling indicates that most voters oppose the war, which contrasts with Trump’s campaign promises to avoid new foreign interventions. He has argued that Americans should tolerate temporarily higher fuel prices to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon.
Iran maintains that its nuclear programme is intended for civilian purposes. The UN nuclear watchdog and US intelligence community have assessed that Tehran shut down a nuclear weapons development programme in 2003.
The political consequences are also being felt among Republican candidates, some of whom have distanced themselves from Trump on issues including the Middle East conflict, trade tensions with Canada and his pressure campaign against Ukraine.
Iran, meanwhile, has sought to keep oil prices elevated and weaken Trump politically ahead of the elections by targeting ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz and prolonging the diplomatic stalemate, according to senior Iranian officials.
Defending the administration’s policies, White House spokesman Matt Middleton said: “President Trump has always been clear about temporary market disruptions as a result of the conflict in Iran, but the contrast between President Trump’s economic record and Democrats’ ruinous alternative is clear.”
Midterm elections are traditionally viewed as a referendum on the sitting president’s performance. Although foreign policy ranks relatively low among voters’ stated priorities this year, polls suggest many Americans believe Trump’s international decisions, particularly the Iran war and tariffs, are worsening their financial circumstances.
A nationwide survey by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs also found that most Americans believe the administration’s foreign policy has harmed the country’s international standing and negatively affected national and household economic conditions.
Since returning to the White House last year, Trump has disrupted the international order shaped by the United States after World War Two. His relationships with traditional allies have deteriorated, while analysts say the limits of American power have become more apparent.
Democrats are widely projected to gain control of the House of Representatives, while the Senate race has become more competitive. Losing either chamber would make it harder for Republicans to advance Trump’s domestic agenda during the final two years of his second term.
But, a change in congressional control would not necessarily prevent Trump from pursuing his preferred foreign policy. The outcome could instead influence whether he becomes more constrained or more willing to act independently on the world stage.
“For many presidents who feel politically constrained (at home), foreign policy is the area where they are able to act with relative freedom,” said Jon Alterman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
After the ballots are counted, analysts say Trump’s approach to Iran, Russia, China, Cuba and US allies could shift in several directions, depending on the political consequences of the election.
