Executive Director of the Civil Society, Auwal Musa Rafsanjani warns low voter confidence risks deepening apathy ahead of 2027 general elections.
Auwal Musa Rafsanjani, has warned that the conduct of recent local council and by-elections in Nigeria risks undermining public confidence in the country’s democratic process.
Rafsanjani said the elections held in the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), as well as by-elections in Kano State and Rivers State, raised serious concerns about voter intimidation, logistical failures, and political interference.
According to him, the tense atmosphere created ahead of the polls discouraged participation and contributed to the very low voter turnout recorded in the elections.
“First and foremost, most Nigerians were worried even before the elections and days before the election, the way and manner in which the atmosphere was turned into something like a war or a do-or-die affair,” Rafsanjani said.
“There was almost a 24-hour curfew declared in Abuja from Friday 8pm to Saturday 8pm, even though the police came up with their own schedule of restrictions, which also showed a lack of coordination. The Abuja minister issued his own directive, the police issued theirs, and it became a source of concern for Nigerians.”
Rafsanjani also criticised remarks attributed to the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Nyesom Wike, which he said created the impression that the outcome of the election was predetermined.
“Before the election, he was seen in many places campaigning and saying that if voters cast their votes they should leave the rest to him. That created an atmosphere that discouraged many Nigerians from participating in the election in Abuja,” he said.
“That accounted for the possible low turnout because people already believed the process was not going to be free, fair and credible.”
He argued that public officials must exercise caution in their statements during elections to avoid undermining the integrity of the process.
“It is important to remind public officials about their utterances so that they do not create the impression that the process has already been compromised.”
Rafsanjani also criticised the exclusion of major political parties from the ballot in some of the by-elections.
“You cannot have major political parties in Kano and Rivers excluded from the ballots. That is a huge issue that the Independent National Electoral Commission has to explain,” he said.
“You cannot have major opposition political parties not on the ballot. In Kano and Rivers that was the case, and that is not a good indication of preparedness by the electoral body.”
He further alleged that vote buying occurred in several polling units in Abuja during the council elections.
“We have seen in many places where people were actually being given materials and money to vote for particular political parties,” Rafsanjani said.
He also criticised logistical challenges experienced during the polls despite the elections taking place in the nation’s capital.
“If Abuja, which is just next to the headquarters of the Independent National Electoral Commission, is experiencing logistical challenges, delays and sudden changes of polling units, then that is not a good reputation for the electoral body,” he said.
“All this while they have been planning for the election, so you cannot simply experience logistical problems in the manner that manifested in Abuja.”
The civil society leader also raised concerns about accessibility issues for persons with disabilities and the experiences of some female voters during the election.
“People with disabilities complained that they were not able to access the election because no effort was made to ensure they were supported to participate in the process,” he said.
Warning of declining voter participation
Rafsanjani warned that continued irregularities and perceived interference could deepen voter apathy ahead of the 2027 general election.
“If the system creates the impression that people’s votes will not matter, then you will continue to see low turnout even in future elections,” he said.
“If this kind of boasting by public officials continues into the 2027 general election, it will demoralise Nigerians from participating because they will think the outcome has already been decided.”
He noted that voter participation in Nigeria has steadily declined since the country’s return to democratic rule in 1999.
“The last election recorded less than 30 per cent of registered voters participating. That is not good for the nation,” he said.
“With the kind of approaches we are seeing, the vote buying, the use of dirty money to secure elections, we will continue to experience democratic backsliding in Nigeria.”
Call for presidential intervention
Rafsanjani urged President Bola Ahmed Tinubu to act decisively to restore confidence in Nigeria’s electoral institutions.
“I think the president should do everything possible to rescue his image and integrity so that Nigerians and the international community will not continue to criticise him for failing to ensure free, fair and credible elections,” he said.
He also raised concerns about the appointment of politically affiliated individuals into the electoral body, warning that it could erode trust in the system.
“The constitution says that current members of political parties should not be in the electoral body. But according to allegations, some people with party affiliations have been appointed, and that is already creating mistrust,” he said.
Rafsanjani added that the electoral commission should have taken steps to prevent any perceived interference by political actors during the elections.
“If the chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission had cautioned the minister to stay away from polling units because he was an interested party, it would have reassured Nigerians that the process would not be compromised,” he said.
“We need to change the way we conduct elections if we want Nigerians to participate. The only way to have new leaders or return leaders is through credible elections in which Nigerians have confidence and participate fully.”
